You Say You Want A Revolution?

I don’t think that it is a real surprise to anyone here on the ground in Egypt to see that things are heating up here again as we approach the day slated for parliamentary elections and the Arab Spring becomes Arab Summer. For anyone whose head has not been firmly planted in the sand, it has been clear for some time that not much has changed in the governance of Egypt except for the disappearance of Hosni Mubarak at the helm. The military still has its grip on the government, the police are still at odds with the populace (and are themselves protesting against low pay and poor work environments), the people have not seen improvement in any of the dismal conditions in which they have lived for the past several decades, nor has any clear leader emerged to guide the country into a new era. In many ways, Egypt has changed partners but is dancing to the same tired tune.

So the current round of protests in Tahrir Square in Cairo, and in the neighborhoods of Smouha and Sidi Gaber here in Alexandria are simply a reminder that it is one thing to start a revolution, but a completely different thing to finish one successfully. History certainly bears witness to the difficulties of pulling together a coherent government after the violent ouster of a much entrenched ruler. Think of England after the Roundheads lopped off the not-so-round head of Charles I. Or France post-Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Even the Founding Fathers had some tricky moments after they booted the remnants of King George out of the new United States. Things were messy and confused, of course. A myriad of groups join the fray for their disparate reasons, and pulling together a cohesive entity of these many, and often contradictory, forces takes both time, patience, and the willingness to listen to each voice and to compromise. From my limited experience with Egypt, these are not characteristics that I would place at the top of the list describing the nature of the Egyptian people. I’d list strong willed, passionate and determined, but also stubborn, single minded, and confrontational---traits that are great for starting a revolution, but not so hot for building a new government.

The next few weeks should be revealing. Will the military let go of its dog-with-a-bone hold on power? Will the police take on the role of protector rather than instigator? Will the people move away from protesting and move on to voting? The sad part of all of this is that while riots and protest marches have proven to be the most effective way to get things to shake loose here, it may also have put a nail in the coffin of the very things that have kept the Egyptian economy and many individual families afloat for so long here…tourism and international investment. So while the people flock to the square to support the revolutionary cause, without a coherent end-game plan, the already flimsy economic support for their livelihoods erodes. And unlike John Lennon, I’m not so certain that it will be alright.